In view of the frightening data presented almost daily regarding the situation of the Amazon rainforest, it is difficult to answer this question.
Is it still possible to curb deforestation and preserve the portion of the forest that has remained untouched? What about the already damaged portion, are there any possibilities for reforestation? The possible answers are only estimated on the realization of urgent preservation projects. Even with the implementation of efficient actions to try to reverse the damage, the damage already caused to the forest is immense.
It is not productive, obviously, to take the problem as unsolvable and let the forest be entirely consumed. However, the notion becomes clear that, with each passing day, the greater the irreparable damage left by deforestation actions carried out in the region are greater.
How fast is deforestation?
It is impossible to specify the amount of time we have left to undertake programs and strategies that are effectively capable of saving the Amazon. However, one answer that can be obtained is the speed that deforestation has been reaching.
Let us see the results presented by the researches related to the advance of clear cut deforestation. From 2018 to 2019, the forest experienced a significant increase in its deforestation rate. The data were calculated by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). The agency estimates that, from August 2018 to July 2019, the area deforested was 9,762 km². In relation to the data from the previous year (which presented the result of 7,536 km²), the value represents an increase of almost 30% (29.54% to be more exact).
During 2019, the speed of deforestation increased even more. According to the Annual Coverage and Land Use Mapping Project in Brazil, better known as MapBiomas, which presented data on biomes and deforested areas per day in 2019, the most attacked biome was the Amazon. Secondly, there is the cerrado, which also suffered a significant loss of area as a result of deforestation processes.
MapBiomas indicates that 2,110 hectares of Amazonian forest were lost daily. In other words, to put the data caused by deforestation in an easier way to visualize: almost 2,000 soccer fields were deforested per day.
Estimates indicate that the term is short
The question of how much time we still have to protect the Amazon rainforest is a concern that for decades has been occupying the work of researchers in the area of Environment.
An online article published in May 2013 by Super Interesting presents some estimates. That year’s deforestation rate was about 0.2% of the entire forest area. Thus, after two centuries, the forest would be entirely extinct.
This result, although critical, does not sound so alarming. However, the account is not so simple.
Several scientists argue that, if deforestation reaches 30 or 40% of the Amazon, it will start an irreversible process of destruction and desertification. That is, instead of the 200 years presented by the first calculation, we can detect that, following deforestation of 0.2% per year, the extinction of the forest would materialize in 2053.
Even so, both estimates have a fixed rate of deforestation. What would happen, then, if this index increased? With a rate of 0.75% deforestation per year (like the rate presented in 1995, one of the worst so far), the forest area could be completely destroyed in just over a decade.
In the article, the possibilities of dates presented for the extinction of the forest are:
- between 2053 and 2213, in the best scenario; or
- between 2025 and 2123.
The variation between the two forecasts is due to the possibility of increasing the deforestation rate. In the case of high rates like the one we have presented, the most realistic estimate is the one that predicts the end of the forest in the next hundred years.
Quer dizer que, no pior dos casos apresentados pela matéria, daqui a cinco anos já poderemos estar vivendo em um país praticamente desprovido de sua tão importante floresta amazônica.
Calculation of damage already caused
The so-called Grande Amazônia has an area of 8 million km². Of these, 15% have already been lost until 2013, totaling an area of the deforested area that presents the same proportions as Venezuela.
Most of the damage is in the portion of the forest that integrates the Brazilian territory. Of the total area, 5 million km² are within Brazil. According to the calculations of the responsible agencies, the deforested area in the country is 730 thousand km².
To make this number easier to view, we can use the following comparison: the amount of Amazon forest already deforested in Brazil corresponds to at least twice the state of São Paulo plus the extensions of the states of Paraná and Santa Catarina .
It is important to note: these data are revealed by agronomist Adalberto Veríssimo, in interviews given in 2013. This means that, until today, the rates have worsened a lot.
An example of this is Veríssimo’s speech when he claimed that it would be essential “by 2020, eliminate deforestation for good”. As we currently know, the year indicated by the researcher as the deadline for the interruption of these processes has not been met. Worse than that, the rates have only increased.
There’s still time to act, there’s just no time to wait
The data and estimates presented here are not intended to discourage engagement in relation to forest preservation. On the contrary, the intention is to show the damage already done and the urgent need for the entire Brazilian population to seek ways to act in favor of the Amazon region.
So, to answer the initial question: yes, there is time to recover the Amazon rainforest. What is not there is time to wait.